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The Indian stock market’s rebound on expiry day was influenced by a confluence of factors, including a perceived de-escalation of U.S.-Iran tensions leading to lower oil prices and bond yields. The market’s sensitivity to these global economic indicators remains high. The rotation into defensive and domestic-oriented sectors suggests investors are seeking stability amidst ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and awaiting clearer signals on inflation and interest rates. The mixed performance in broader markets indicates a selective investment approach. The technical outlook suggests potential for further upside if key resistance levels are breached, but support levels will be closely watched for downside protection. Investors are likely to remain cautious due to persistent geopolitical risks.
Indian stock markets experienced a sharp rebound on Tuesday, the monthly expiry day, as declines in crude oil prices and bond yields provided support. The benchmark Sensex closed up nearly 287 points at 77,656, while the Nifty 50 gained 115 points to end at 24,334. The session was marked by significant volatility, particularly following the implementation of the closing auction session (CAS).
Broader market indices presented a mixed picture, with the Nifty Smallcap 100 closing in negative territory, while the Nifty Midcap 100 registered gains. Analysts attributed the market’s upward swing in the latter part of the session to easing geopolitical tensions concerning Iran, which led to a moderation in crude oil prices and bond yields from recent peaks. This relief in energy costs was seen as a contributing factor to the positive close on the expiry day.
The healthcare and financial sectors outperformed the broader market, with investors showing a preference for defensive and domestic-oriented stocks. This rotation coincided with signs of stability in the domestic bond market. Market participants are now closely monitoring upcoming inflation data and awaiting commentary from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair for further clarity on the inflation and interest rate outlook.
Despite the day’s gains, near-term caution is expected to persist for Indian equities. Unresolved geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to keep oil prices and bond yields at relatively elevated levels, making investors sensitive to shifts in the Middle East landscape.
Technically, the Nifty remained range-bound for most of the session before experiencing a strong rally in the final hour, aided by the CAS. The index has moved back above its 20-day exponential moving average, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has indicated a bullish crossover, suggesting improving momentum. Short-term resistance is noted at 24,400 and 24,480, with immediate support at 24,240.
Among the most active stocks by turnover on the NSE were FACT, Hindustan Copper, Vodafone Idea, Paytm, SAIL, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank. In terms of trading volume, Vodafone Idea, SAIL, Yes Bank, Groww, Paradeep Phosphates, IFCI, and Suzlon Energy were prominent. Stocks witnessing strong buying interest included FACT, Vodafone Idea, Cyient, Paradeep Phosphates, Paytm, Angel One, and IREDA. Conversely, Hind Copper, IIFL Finance, Data Patterns, Balrampur Chini, Redington, Netweb Technologies, and Ola Electric Mobility saw selling pressure.
Several stocks hit their 52-week highs, including Paytm, Divis Labs, AU Small Finance Bank, Bajaj Auto, IPCA Labs, PVR Inox, and HFCL. On the other hand, RVNL, Groww, Dabur India, IRB Infra Dev., IRCTC, Sun TV, and PI Industries touched their 52-week lows.
The broader market sentiment, as indicated by the advance-decline ratio on the NSE, favored bears. Out of 3,637 stocks traded, 1,672 advanced, while 1,842 declined, with 123 remaining unchanged.
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