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The report highlights a potential conflict between achieving lower electricity prices and the pace of consumer adoption for electric vehicles and heat pumps. The “business-as-usual” scenario, which assumes current policy drivers like bans and grants, projects faster uptake. The alternative scenario, prioritizing lower electricity costs, foresees a slower but potentially more consumer-driven adoption. Political willingness to maintain or reverse existing mandates (like the petrol/diesel car ban) will be a key factor in determining which scenario’s assumptions hold true. The analysis acknowledges that current policy mechanisms are designed to accelerate adoption, while a “cheap power” approach relies on market forces and consumer preference, which may take longer to yield the same level of electrification.
Quick Summary
- A new report suggests a pathway to cheaper UK electricity could slow the adoption of electric cars and heat pumps.
- The “business-as-usual” scenario, under current policies, anticipates a faster uptake of these technologies.
- Conservative MP Claire Coutinho argues consumer choice, driven by lower prices, is a more sustainable path to electrification than mandates.
A new energy strategy for the UK proposes a path toward cheaper electricity, but it comes with a potential trade-off: a slower rollout of electric cars and heat pumps. This alternative pathway, outlined in a report by think tank Onward, contrasts with a “business-as-usual” scenario that assumes current government policies remain in place.
The report’s analysis, supported by Transira Energy, suggests that if the focus shifts solely to reducing electricity costs, the public might not be compelled to adopt electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps as quickly. This is because the “business-as-usual” scenario includes measures like a ban on new petrol and diesel car sales by **2030** and support for heat pump installation.
In this “business-as-usual” model, an estimated **42 million** EVs are expected on UK roads by **2050**. For heat pumps, the number is projected to rise by **7.7 million** between **2027** and **2050**.
However, the “alternative policy pathway” removes these direct mandates. Instead, it relies on lower electricity prices and a wider range of consumer choices to drive adoption. While this approach could make electricity more affordable, the analysis indicates it would lead to approximately **10 million fewer EVs** on the roads by **2050** compared to the “business-as-usual” scenario. The growth in heat pumps is also projected to be slower, with an estimated increase of **6.1 million** in the same period.
Conservative MP Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, acknowledged the modelled lower adoption rates for electric technology in the alternative plan. She believes that mandating these technologies, especially if they add costs to consumers, is a less realistic approach.
“Electrification rates are assumed to be higher in the net zero pathway because it (generously) assumes that forcing people to adopt electric technology through bans and mandates will work, even if those products add costs to people’s lives,” Coutinho stated. She pointed to the Labour government’s decision to relax the ZEV mandate as an example of public pressure leading to policy U-turns.
Coutinho argues that her proposed “Cheap Power pathway” is better for genuine electrification. “Adoption of new technology is most rapid when that technology makes consumers’ lives better that is the story of the adoption of every single mass-market technology throughout history,” she added.
Both scenarios, however, represent significant growth compared to current figures for EV and heat pump ownership in the UK.
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